Meanwhile, climate change is adding pressure to the entire river system, exacerbating existing supply and demand imbalances. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. In the short term, yes. This cookie is native to PHP applications. Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. With modest reductions in flow, they would be meaningful.. . LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. This is when were supposed to be gaining and accumulating water in the form of snowpack, and thats not happening, Selover said. They werent able to come up with an agreement. 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The third would transfer some water stored in the smaller Upper Basin reservoirs to Lake Powell. Drought Conditions Affect Two-Thirds of the U.S. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. After seeing 30 inches of rain in one day in Louisiana, 20 inches in Houston, unprecedented drought in California over the last 5 years, not to mention the flow reductions in Colorado River, Udall said, I think we need to seriously consider water-related climatic events that have no historical precedent.. Used to help protect the website against Cross-Site Request Forgery attacks. Thanks so much for joining us. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. University of California professor Jay Lund previously told Newsweek that the cuts already implemented aren't enough, and in order to give the reservoirs ample time to recover through rain and snowpack melt, people will need to reduce their consumption even more. 84% Of Upper Basin In Extreme To Exceptional Drought This is the highest percentage of land in the river's Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the region's driest year on record. Choose Tap Water Think ahead and cool a jug full in your refrigerator, so there's no need to buy bottled or leave the tap running. The pattern element in the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. The use of these cookies is strictly limited to measuring the site's audience. As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. As of August 10, water levels were measured to be 3,534.51 feet above sea level. And its split into two watersheds. All signs point to a hotter, drier future for the Western U.S. In the year 2000, the two reservoirs were 95% full. Kathleen Davis is a producer at Science Friday, which means she spends the week brainstorming, researching, and writing, typically in that order. Thats important for the entire region, Fleck said, because the backdrop of an impending crisis will set the tone for those negotiations. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics. The Colorado River systems reservoirs combined arecurrently less than half full. California broke from six other Western states in proposal to cut Colorado River use as water levels reach historic lows. So, what would happen if Lake Powell dried up? Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. If allocations from the Colorado River dip below the levels necessary for some customers to receive hydropower, the real question [becomes] what can our grid accommodate from a hydropower perspective in terms of compensating production losses from Glen Canyon? said Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College. The latest projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show there's a. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. And it's not a backroom voodoo mystery that only fortune tellers can forecast. You cant go into a drought like that today if its half full. It is forecast to have a new record low next summer, saidHasencamp. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. In parts of the Colorado River basin, Bolinger said climate change has caused conditions on the ground to bump up against the designated drought categories. In case of a drought like that of 2000-2005, Lake Mead would get 7.48 million acre-feet, worsening the structural deficit that is already causing Mead to drop by up to 12 feet a year due to the Lower Basin states chronic overuse of river water compared to supply. It doesnt matter if we get an incredible snowpack, our soils are so depleted right now that thats not going to really translate to water coming down through the river systems, Meyer said. Because of that, the spring and early summer will bring a temporary boost to water levels while snow runs into rivers and eventually flows into Lake Powell. Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times of drought [and] it is not performing that function now. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. Climatologist Jon Meyer with the Utah Climate Center said the number that captures the severity for him is 12 inches. If its dry there, that means many more problems as the water flows downstream. We are still facing a nearly 1 in 4 chance of Lake Powell returning to "minimum power pool" by 2024 - a risk that remains steady through 2026, the latest year for which Reclamation has forecast. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. But while Lake Mead . Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. Lake Powell has been called "Jewel of the Colorado" by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. We are likely witnessing the end of Lake Powell as we knew it in the 80s and 90s, Balken said. After more than 22 years of drought compounded by warmer temperatures with climate change, Lake Mead and Lake Powell have declined to their lowest levels since they were filled. Reservoir storage is the best single number that captures two things: how much water nature provides and how much water humans are consuming out of that provision, Fleck said. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. The Santa Cruz River is now a giant bed of dust and sand. Explain that a little bit for us, Luke, and just how dire the situation is for the groundwater in the region. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. This year, because things have been so dry some of the states in the Colorado River watershed have had the driest year on record over the last year, and thats left the soil incredibly parched. At full capacity, Lake Powell holds enough water to flood the entire state of Kentucky a foot deep. That is incorrect. And as we warm even further, it makes it that much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover. You have permission to edit this article. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. We are really in unprecedented territory right now, and its not even close, Meyer said. Complicating matters are the ongoing talks on allocation between the seven states on the Colorado River, the source of the lakes waters. The nation's second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. Institute Executive Director Eric Balken said taking such a step would better position stakeholders to address the drought on their own terms rather than simply running out. The second would step up cloud-seeding programs to try to boost snowfall in the region. What about the idea of a water shortage? If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. The Bureau's projections show a 3% chance that Lake Powell's water levels fall below the minimum level necessary for the lake's Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydroelectricity next year. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. The Lower Basin states of Arizona and Nevada have begun to see their deliveries from the river curtailed. Those are Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah. "It would kill 50 to 60% of the businesses in town," said Franz. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. And it would increase the likelihood of cutbacks in river water deliveries to Arizona, in particular. If levels dropped below 3,490 feet, there wouldnt be enough water flowing through Glen Canyon Dams turbines to generate power. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. And what does that mean for the users on the river? This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. Exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry period. Weve seen evaporation increase from reservoirs and streams at higher temperatures. Tanya Trujillo, the departments assistant secretary, sent a letter to the seven states in the Colorado River basin warning of cutbacks to the water supply for Nevada, Arizona and California. The reality is that it's probably too little, too late.. A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. It will be painful but it doesn't mean the area can't thrive. You cant do that with groundwater. Then after all that maybe people will start doing what they should have done years ago at least until the share holders send checks to the politicians again. That deficit could easily put us below power pool within a year, just as a back of the envelope calculation, said Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to be used to launch boats now having a 50 foot drop between the end of the ramp and the water. Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. JOHN DANKOSKY: So obviously, people are preparing for worse times. The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. A large portion of the water in the Colorado River and Lake Powell comes from high-mountain snowmelt in Colorado and Wyoming. Ultimately, experts said the future of the lake must be addressed in a way that creates the certainty it was intended to provide. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. What does the forecast look like? In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. JOHN DANKOSKY: Luke Runyon is a reporter based at KUNC in Fort Collins, Colorado. She said the very fact that officials in Washington, D.C. are getting involved underscores the urgency of Lake Powells crisis. Even lower, at 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits "dead pool," at which point water can no longer pass through the dam by the power of gravity. Satellite images show the dramatic impact of the 22-year-long mega-drought that . For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. Mountain snowpack is generally below average for this time of year, so that boost may not be as big as it has been in years past. Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. At the time of publication, Lake Powell was sitting at only 3,529 feet only four feet above this important threshold. It doesn't strain the mind to imagine us losing power within a year. What would constitute that? During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". Lake Mead's water levels were 1,047.38 feet as of February 23. An acre-foot is 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water that will flood an acre of land to a depth of one foot. LUKE RUNYON: Well, this is kind of a narrative or storyline in the basin that has gotten a lot more attention recently, is how have tribal users been excluded from agreements in the past? 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